If a year ago someone asked me whether Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 Presidential Election, I would have laughed in their face. The GOP had too many great candidates—Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, and others—for that to happen. Except, I didn’t take into account one person: Donald Trump.
Trump’s entrance into the race was unexpected, to say the least. Sure, Trump had brought up the idea of running before, but like many others, I thought he was joking. I suppose I took his comments about running for President as seriously as the winks and nods Sarah Palin gave the thought of her own presidential run, i.e., “Ha! That would be amusing for a while.”
Guess what? The joke is on me. Donald Trump did run. And he's doing really well. So well, in fact, that his march to the nomination seems unstoppable at this point. He will win the nomination.
A Trump nomination bodes well for Hillary’s chances of becoming the first female President. Polls have shown that Hillary would beat Trump in a general election matchup. The serious prospect of a Trump nomination has only made those numbers worse. Hillary is starting to consistently poll above 50% with Trump in the high-30s to low-40's.
Trump and his supporters claim that he has the best chance to win in November because he has sparked a movement in America. A movement that is driving non-voters to turn out and vote for him . . . . because he’s going to make America great again.
Interestingly, Democrats are starting to push a similar theory. Except, their Trump turnout theory is that voters will show up to vote against him and in favor of the Democratic nominee. I wish I could say I think this theory is bonkers, but I actually think there is some merit to it. A lot of people—Democrats, independents, and conservatives—think Donald Trump is dangerous. And trust me, the media has picked up on this message. They both love him and loathe him. The media loves what Donald does for ratings. But they loathe him as a serious presidential candidate. You better believe they have an interest in seeing him stopped. Doesn’t hurt that, in turn, the first female president (a Clinton of all people!) would benefit from Trump’s defeat.
Some in the GOP say there is no way Trump will be the nominee. He will be stopped at the convention. He won’t get the 1,237 votes he needs to be nominated on the first ballot. In turn, a brokered convention will follow where the delegates on a second or third ballot will nominate someone like Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney, or Jeb Bush. Know what I think of this idea? Poppycock.
Trump holds the greatest—ahem—“trump” card: a third party run. If the GOP denies Trump the nomination, he runs third party, taking his loyal chunk of the former GOP base with him. Under this scenario, even if Trump is stopped, Hillary still wins. A divided GOP—much like a divided Democratic Party in 1968—equals a Hillary victory.
A divided GOP could also lead to down-ballot disasters for Senate and House races. I shudder at the thought of what that could look like.
Anyway I slice it, I see Hillary Clinton becoming the next President of the United States. Whether Trump is the nominee or he runs third party, Hillary wins. This is the sad and horrible truth.
I think Hillary is one of the most corrupt candidates we have seen in a long time. Every word she utters, every action she undertakes, says one thing: “Give me the presidency.” I don’t think she has any real motive to be president apart from the power and prestige of it all. That probably explains Sanders’ surprising success—it seems like he actually wants to do something with the office. Hillary? Nah—she just wants the title and the history books.
So, you heard it here first (Ed Note: probably not!): Hillary Clinton will be President.